By Fava Herb — December 29, 2025

Global soybean markets finished the week with mixed, mostly softer trade, leaving African importers and processors on alert as the market awaits delayed U.S. government data that normally sets the tone for nearby import parity.

Chicago soybean futures drifted lower on Friday, with the nearby contracts falling 3 to 4½ cents while the January contract nevertheless posted a weekly gain. The national average U.S. cash soybean price was reported at $9.88½ per bushel. On a metric-tonne basis that equals about $363.21/MT. Jan, Mar and May futures closed near $10.5875, $10.725 and $10.8425 per bushel respectively — roughly $389.02/MT, $394.08/MT and $398.39/MT.

Crushing-related products were also mixed. Soymeal futures were down in small increments (roughly a half-dollar to around a dollar per short ton on the day in some market reports), while soyoil eased 30–35 points on the session, even as January oil futures posted gains on the week. Those moves reflect small re-allocations between protein (meal) and oil demand rather than a large directional shock.

Traders said the market was hampered by thin holiday trade and the temporary suspension or delay of routine government reports — including weekly export sales data — which were pushed back because of a public holiday and agency closures. That lack of fresh official data reduced volatility but also left participants more cautious ahead of the next scheduled export-sales release.

Why Africa should care

African buyers and feed manufacturers pay close attention to U.S. futures and U.S. export data because they set the baseline for global import parity and influence price negotiations for cargoes and meal supplies. Demand fundamentals across Sub-Saharan Africa remain strong — driven by expanding feed sectors and growing edible-oil consumption — so even modest shifts in U.S. futures or export prospects can ripple quickly into African wholesale markets. Analysts have noted rising interest from exporters and traders in courting African markets as a longer-term source of demand growth.

Market context and risks

Two larger structural issues are shading the current backdrop:

– Data uncertainty. Delayed U.S. export and crop reports have reduced market transparency this week. When those reports return to schedule, prices can react sharply if the data surprise the market. 

– Global demand picture. The USDA has signalled a constrained U.S. export outlook for the season, a factor that continues to exert downward pressure on futures relative to earlier expectations; any pickup in confirmed export commitments would likely support prices.

What to watch next

Market participants in Africa should monitor four near-term items closely:

1. U.S. Weekly Export Sales: The next release (covering recent weeks) is due when government schedules resume — a stronger than expected report would raise import parity.  

2. USDA supply/demand updates: Any change to U.S. production or ending stocks estimates can re-shape nearby futures.  

3. Freight and logistics flows: Continued thin holiday shipping and any freight spikes can widen the gap between FOB and landed prices for African buyers.  

4. Local harvest and crush reports in Africa: Seasonal harvest progress and local crushing capacity determine how much pressure or support local cash markets exert on imported supplies.

Bottom line

Markets are in a holding pattern: modest downside in the front-month contracts and quiet trading reflect a lack of fresh data rather than a sudden shift in fundamentals. For African buyers and feed mills — who already face tighter local supply and robust demand — the coming days’ U.S. export sales print and any USDA revisions will be the most likely catalysts for a clearer price direction into early 2026.