FAVA HERB 2026

Across Kenya and neighbors, maize and wheat prices have been driven by the interplay of weather‐linked harvests, local policy, and global markets. For example, a typical maize plot in Kenya (shown above) relies entirely on seasonal rains. Indeed, FAO notes that Kenya’s long‐rains maize (planted Mar–Apr) is generally harvested by the second half of the year, whereas short‐rains maize (planted in late year) comes in mid‐season. In practice this means price troughs about 2–3 months after harvest and peaks just before the next crop. Over 2019–24, prices in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zambia largely followed these cycles — falling in the post‐harvest glut and rising into the lean season — superimposed on global corn (maize) and wheat trends. Notably, during mid‐2023 East African maize eased (e.g. Kenya wholesale maize was ~$610–641/tonne) as new harvests hit markets, after spiking to ~$707/tonne earlier in the year. Government intervention also played a role: for example Kenya’s National Cereals Board purchases at fixed prices have historically capped upside and cushioned drops.

Price Trends and Benchmarks

Local grain prices are often well above global futures. In the U.S. corn market (CBOT), prices ranged roughly $150–200/tonne (around $4–5 per bushel) over 2019–24. By contrast, East African white maize has generally traded in the $400–800/tonne range. For wheat, global Chicago soft/red winter wheat futures were near $200–300/tonne (around $5–7 per bushel) in this period, whereas imports into the region (including freight, duties and quality premium) traded higher. For instance, Kenyan importers paid roughly $333–400/tonne for millable wheat in 2022–23. Notably, international grain volatility has risen: FAO/OECD note that implied volatility on corn and wheat futures has crept up steadily since 1990. Spikes in 2020–22 (droughts, Russia/Ukraine conflict, exchange rate swings) translated into local market turbulence.

Overall from 2019 to 2024, trends were: maize prices in these countries eased in 2020 (after 2019 peaks) and again in 2022–23 as good harvests arrived. Conversely, wheat prices (and import bills) climbed after 2021 due to global tightness. By early 2024 maize was generally down from 2022’s high levels across Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. CBOT corn futures were trading near three‐month lows (~$4.20/bu) by Jan 2026, reflecting ample supplies. Such international signals serve as a benchmark: local traders gauge, for example, whether Kenyan maize is “cheap” or “expensive” relative to the U.S. price plus transport.

Seasonal Harvests and Price Spreads

East African prices are strongly seasonal. In Kenya, the “first” harvest (long rains) hits markets roughly July–October, and the “second” harvest (short rains) by Feb–April. As a rule, cereal prices bottom 2–3 months after harvest, then climb until the next harvest. This creates seasonal spreads that traders exploit. For example, maize often sells at its lowest in Aug–Sep (post long‐rain harvest) and peaks in Jan–Mar (lean season). Wheat does not have a local harvest cycle (nearly all is imported), so traders hedge cross‐season spreads using futures or storage strategies.

Kenya’s corrected harvest timing means that the prior notion of a “March–June” maize season was inaccurate: in fact long‐rains maize is collected later (Jul–Oct) and the short‐rains crop later (Feb–Apr). This nuance is crucial for procurement timing: mills expecting an April harvest would be surprised. In practice, savvy buyers monitor climate reports (e.g. regional rainfall forecasts) and local crop progress to time purchases. They also watch price parity: when local maize is unusually high relative to imported wheat (adjusting for flour extraction), millers may blend or substitute, and vice versa.

Trade Flows and Partners

The four countries form an integrated regional market for maize and wheat. Below we summarize each country’s major export/import flows (figures for 2023):

• Kenya: A net importer of maize and a large wheat consumer. It imported ~488,500 tonnes of maize in 2023. The bulk came from South Africa (~155,000 t) and Tanzania (~217,000 t); smaller amounts came from Ukraine, Russia, etc. (Domestic corn harvests of ~3.2 Mt in 2022/23 reduced import needs.) Wheat imports were even larger: in 2023 Kenya bought about 2.0 million tonnes of wheat worth ~$666 million. Key suppliers were Russia (67% of value), then the USA, Ukraine, and others. Exports: Kenya’s foreign sales of maize and wheat are negligible (mostly non‐seed maize and flour to neighbors).
• Uganda: A net maize exporter and modest wheat importer. Uganda sold roughly 311,000 tonnes of maize abroad in 2023, mainly to Rwanda (159,000 t, ~$46.3M) and Kenya (93,000 t, ~$28.6M). Uganda imports very little raw maize. Wheat: Uganda imported about 0.7 Mt of wheat (value ~$256M) in 2023. Major suppliers were Russia (≈$172M, 67%) and Ukraine ($41M, 16%), with smaller volumes from Lithuania, the US, Canada, etc. Uganda’s exports of wheat products are tiny (<$0.1M).
• Tanzania: Net maize exporter, major wheat importer. Tanzania exported about 126,700 tonnes of maize in 2023, principally to Kenya (73,300 t, $18.6M) and Rwanda (36,100 t, $11.7M) (plus small sales to Burundi, DRC, Malawi). Wheat: Tanzania imported roughly 1.2 Mt of wheat ($462M) in 2023. Two‐thirds came from Russia (~$312M), with additional imports from the USA, Poland, Latvia, Ukraine, Canada, etc.
• Zambia: Small net maize exporter, small wheat importer. Zambia’s recent maize exports have been minimal — about 21,000 tonnes in 2023– as domestic output was constrained. Most exports go to neighbors when available. Wheat: Zambia brought in only around 0.1 Mt of wheat ($32M) in 2023. Its suppliers were South Africa (60% of value) and Lithuania (35%), with negligible flows from elsewhere.

These flows highlight the inter‐dependence: Kenya and Tanzania are major gateways for imports; Uganda and Tanzania supply staple corn to neighbors; Russia and Ukraine dominate regional wheat imports (until recent disruptions).

Trading & Substitution Insights

Seasonal and volatility patterns open trading windows. Substitution windows occur when one grain is cheap relative to another. For instance, if post‐harvest maize is very cheap but imported wheat remains dear, poultry and feed millers will favor maize, and flour millers will consider maize blends. Conversely, if drought tightens maize and wheat futures fall, mills may lean harder on wheat. Keeping an eye on the local maize‐to‐wheat price ratio is crucial.

Seasonal spreads: Traders can exploit intra‐year spreads. For example, one might buy (long) July maize contracts pre‐harvest, expecting prices to fall after harvest, while shorting later‐year futures. East Africa’s harvest calendar means basis (local minus CBOT) typically widens in the lean season (Feb–May) and narrows after harvest (Aug–Dec). Cash forwards and warehouse receipts in local markets (or KCX futures) allow mills and traders to lock in pre‐harvest prices when anticipatory storage arbitrage is attractive.

Volatility plays: Given the rising volatility in global grain markets, active players can use derivatives. For instance, a trader might buy corn futures options when implied volatility is low, expecting a spike around known risk events (e.g. climate forecasts, trade policy changes). Similarly, Kenyan wheat‐importers regularly hedge via Chicago Board of Trade futures or options to offset rupiah fluctuations and price swings. High local price swings (driven by, say, exchange rate moves or supply shocks) can be arbitraged via currency‐adjusted carry trades or by buying physical at one port and selling in another region.

In short, a seasoned trader or procurement manager would integrate: (a) Farm calendars (early buying in surplus, selling lean; aware that Kenya’s main maize yields come Jul–Oct), (b) Price trends (using CBOT corn/wheat as a bellwether), and Policy signals (e.g. Kenyan export bans or Tanzania’s export procedures can invert spreads). For example, in late 2023 many Ethiopian millers shifted back to maize when it was cheaper during harvest season. Meanwhile, vol‐based strategies (e.g. straddles around WASDE reports) have become more pertinent as the underlying markets exhibit “extraordinary” volatility since 2006.

Key takeaways for markets: Maize prices tend to fall after the July–Oct harvest window (especially in surplus years) and rise into early the following year; wheat prices reflect global supply shocks more than seasonality. Trade flows are anchored by historical ties (e.g. Uganda→Rwanda/Kenya for maize; Russia/Europe→EAC for wheat). Traders can capitalize on seasonal spreads (harvest vs. lean seasons) and substitution (shifting between corn and wheat flour) to optimize buying. Robust risk management — using futures/options against crop or currency risk — is now essential in these markets of often-thin liquidity and high sensitivity to global price moves