Of all the metals in this series, lithium has had the strangest two years. It went from the most hyped commodity of the EV era to a market so oversupplied that Chinese producers were mining at a loss, and then, over roughly twelve months, back to a genuine deficit story — not because electric vehicles suddenly took off again, but because battery energy storage systems, the unglamorous grid-scale cousin of the EV battery, grew faster than almost anyone modelled. Zimbabwe, Africa’s largest lithium producer, responded to the recovery by suspending exports outright. Nigeria responded by opening the largest lithium processing plant on the continent.

01 — From Glut to DeficitHow Lithium Found Its Floor Again

Lithium carbonate spent 2023–2024 in one of the sharpest commodity collapses in recent memory, falling from 2022 highs near 600,000 yuan per tonne to four-year lows as Chinese and Australian supply outran a slower-than-promised EV rollout. Prices in North Asia opened 2025 around $10,798 per tonne and, after a punishing first half, staged a rebound that surprised even bullish analysts: by December 29, 2025, prices had risen 56% from the January start to $16,883 per tonne. The rally accelerated into 2026 — lithium carbonate and hydroxide both traded near year-to-date highs around $25,000/tonne by late April, more than double the same point in 2025, even after accounting for a subsequent summer pullback as Chinese supply (including CATL’s previously suspended Jianxiawo mine) began returning to the market.

The demand story underpinning the recovery is more interesting than “EVs are back.” BMI projects total global lithium demand growing about 4.8% in 2026 — a sharp deceleration from 18.5% growth in 2025 — yet prices have moved up regardless, because the composition of demand has shifted. Energy storage systems (ESS) are now growing far faster than the broader battery market: J.P. Morgan raised its 2026 global ESS production forecast by 17% to 900 GWh, and projects ESS will account for 32% of global lithium demand in 2026, rising to 38% by 2030. Because LFP batteries rely on lithium carbonate rather than hydroxide, this shift has disproportionately tightened the carbonate market specifically — the exact grade most relevant to African spodumene concentrate producers feeding Chinese conversion plants.

02 — Zimbabwe’s SqueezeAfrica’s Top Producer Pulls Its Own Supply

Zimbabwe is Africa’s largest lithium producer and shipped 1.128 million tonnes of lithium concentrate in 2025, overwhelmingly to China. On 25 February 2026, the country suspended all lithium concentrate exports immediately — a policy move that, layered onto already-recovering prices, sparked fears of a supply shortage by May and added directly to the bullish pressure behind the 2026 price run. The suspension sits alongside a broader pattern of African lithium producers moving to convert raw export bans into leverage, echoing the beneficiation logic covered elsewhere in this series for gold, cobalt and manganese.

What has surprised the market is the strength of the demand side of the industry.Paul Lusty, Head of Battery Raw Materials, Fastmarkets

03 — Nigeria’s AnswerNasarawa Becomes Africa’s Lithium Refining Capital

While Zimbabwe was restricting exports and the rest of the market was debating whether the price rally would hold, Nigeria was building. On 2 July 2026, President Bola Tinubu commissioned what the Federal Government describes as West Africa’s — and Africa’s — largest lithium processing plant, in the Endo community of Nasarawa State. Built by Chinese firm Diamond New Energy on roughly $250 million of investment, the facility processes 6,000 metric tonnes of lithium ore daily, or close to 3 million tonnes annually, and has already generated more than 1,000 direct jobs and over 2,000 indirect ones. It is not Nasarawa’s only lithium plant: Avatar New Energy Materials operates a second facility processing around 4,000 tonnes daily, and Chinese battery-materials giant Canmax Technologies — which the company says accounts for over 30% of global battery material production — has separately committed a further $200 million to expand capacity in the state.

The policy driver is explicit and non-negotiable: Nigeria’s Ministry of Solid Minerals Development, under Minister Dele Alake, has stated the country will no longer issue mining licences without a local value-addition commitment, and prohibits export of raw, unprocessed minerals altogether. Commercial-grade lithium deposits span a corridor sometimes called the Nigerian Lithium Belt, running across Nasarawa, Kogi, Kwara, Ekiti, Cross River, Oyo, Plateau and Kaduna states — with Nasarawa specifically drawing more than $1.2 billion in cumulative investment commitments across lithium, tin, columbite and tantalite processing as the state positions itself as what one report calls “Nigeria’s next industrial frontier.”

04 — OutlookWhat We Are Watching Into Year-End

• ESS GrowthWhether energy storage demand growth continues to outpace EV demand growth will determine if the carbonate-specific tightness of 2026 persists into 2027.
• Chinese Restart PaceThe speed at which suspended Chinese capacity (Jianxiawo and others) returns to full output is the key near-term swing factor on the supply side.
• Zimbabwe PolicyAny move to lift, extend, or formalise the February 2026 export suspension into a quota system (echoing the DRC’s cobalt playbook) would be a significant signal for African lithium supply.
• Nasarawa Scale-UpWhether Canmax’s additional $200m investment and further Nigerian Lithium Belt deposits (Kogi, Kwara, Plateau) convert into new financed capacity will shape Nigeria’s trajectory as a genuine processing hub versus a single-project story.